Originally Published Jun. 27, 2016
“We finally really did it…You Maniacs! You blew it up! Ah, damn You! God damn you all to hell!” Cry the Bremain supporters, EU politicians and FX and equity capital markets.
The departing and presumptive British PMs suggests a period of calm negotiations before any change occurs. EU politicians and administrators continue their disregard for democracy and demand immediate panic, liberal elite demand disenfranchisement of over half the British public, and investors, employers and capital markets bemoan uncertainty.
The benefits of free trade remain: purchasing of goods from the cheapest source allowing allocation of remaining resources to the most relative productive activity.
In the coming re-negotiations Britain approach from a position of strength, it accepts net services and goods from the EU and the rest of the world, any threat to allowing British goods and services into Europe (as long as they meet EU regulatory standards) could be met with even harsher reprisal. Of course as the UK is smaller than the EU the relative effect would hurt the UK more. But both Switzerland & Norway with massive net exports have access to the EU free market for which they pay, on this basis the UK could maintain access and receive a net receipt.
Under free movement of labour Britain again receives net migration from the EU. Britain could limit EU immigration, on a one-to-one basis, to the highest quality and demanded resources without jeopardising British nationals working or living in their homes in the EU.
Britain is also a net contributor to the subsidies and grants of the EU, for that benefit it is allowed access to the decision and law making processes that is shared with 27 other nations. Whilst the direction of political EU and UK may now differ, the UK would be free to adopt any of the best in-class practises from the EU without having to contribute to the EU treasury.
For trade with the rest of the world any existing EU agreements with the rest of the world could also be adopted by the UK and the non-EU blocks until if necessary renegotiation take place.
A call for calm rational negotiations by British leaders and the head of the other successful economy in the EU (and provider of the British royal family, maintained after the Magna Carta, reinstalled after the English Civil War as a constitutional monarchy and, possible model for UK’s continued membership of the EU) would lead to a beneficial outcome for both sides (and a similar non event to the Y2K). The rash hysterical shrill for punitive action from the world liberal elite provides the reasoning for British exit, but also evokes uncertainty for the UK, EU and rest of the world.