Originally Published Aug. 25, 2015
We’ve just had the first 10% correction in the US stock market in over 3 years, immediately preceded by a halving of equity valuations in the Chinese stock market, together with most other country stockmarkets moving into bear or correction territory.
This has been driven by two factors; a slowdown in Chinese economic growth and the probability of a September interest rate rises in the USA.
However we believe that the probability of a US September interest rate rise (from near zero) has now been removed and the probability of Chinese interest cuts (from 4.85%) have increased.
This should benefit economic growth and allow many country stockmarkets to recover recent losses.
Put in the context of the USA’s seven year bull market, there may not be many more years left in the bull market, but now is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the middle.