Economy & Capital Markets: Uncertainties in 2020 (Brexit, Covid, US elections, elongation of the economic cycle) have now dissipated. Unemployment remains elevated and inflation absent, permitting central bankers to continue their folly of creating massive wealth inequality through near to zero interest rates, as apposed to increasing the volocity of money. Interestingly governments across the […]
Economy & Capital Markets US equity markets moved to new all-time highs and the fastest ever recovery from a bear market as, Central Bank liquidity moved to assets whilst avoiding the huge economic capacity. In a well flagged move the US Federal Reserve Bank now target (excess) average inflation as a policy goal, that had […]
Companies in nascent industries under the guise of lowering cost to the consumer are being allowed insurmountable economies of scale, by buying out their vertical and horizontal competitors. In the end, only these monopoly company owners and employees benefit from industry profits. New competitors now cannot enter to share the industry wealth on a more […]
Economy & Capital Markets The US Federal Reserve expects to hold short term interest rates at 0.1% for the next three years. At present the ECB’s short term rate is 0%, the BoJ’s -0.1%, the SNB’s -0.75% and PBC’s 3.85%; punishing cautious savers, pensions and those who should not undertake risk, to benefit limited liability […]
12 minute introduction to understanding consensus earnings estimates. Their use in valuation models. How they represent a generalisation of the underlying economy. Why the stockmarket may not represent the consensus earnings view. Effect of COVID-19 (coronavirus) on earnings expectations. How they can provide a guide for managing operating business’.
Economy & Capital MarketsThe S&P500 fell 35% and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank cut effected funds rate from 1.59% to 0.25% in 24 trading days. This followed a reversal of Western Governments response to airborne COVID-19 (first globally reported on new years eve), initially failing to impose “cheap” measures pre-boarder, then enforcing delayed internal draconian […]