12 minute introduction to understanding consensus earnings estimates. Their use in valuation models. How they represent a generalisation of the underlying economy. Why the stockmarket may not represent the consensus earnings view. Effect of COVID-19 (coronavirus) on earnings expectations. How they can provide a guide for managing operating business’.
Economy & Capital MarketsThe S&P500 fell 35% and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank cut effected funds rate from 1.59% to 0.25% in 24 trading days. This followed a reversal of Western Governments response to airborne COVID-19 (first globally reported on new years eve), initially failing to impose “cheap” measures pre-boarder, then enforcing delayed internal draconian […]
• Successes. – Developed and implemented first deep-learning applications providing a massive improvement in analytical power by leveraging previous years hardware purchases – Acceleration in pipeline of third party cutting edge quantitative research to implement – Impressive performance from improved security selection criteria – Further improved the fundamental and technical criteria for security selection – […]
Jan17- Oct19 net cumulative return 39% & sharp ratio 1.03 against it’s ACWI universe 35% & 0.81. Trade, FX, Ticker, Holding Period, Position Return, Portfolio Contribution Short, CAD, CPG, 16Jul-10Oct, -18.20%, -0.20% Short, GBP, DRX, 16Jul-10Oct, 4.40%, 0.04% Short, GBP, INTU, 16Jul-10Oct, 52.40%, 0.53% Short, GBP, TED, 16Jul-10Oct, 41.75%, 0.46% Immediate transparency, 3 day full […]
Trade, FX, Ticker, Dates, P&L, Contribution Short, EUR, APAM, Jun27-Sep24, 6.29%, 0.21% Short, EUR, VAS, Jun27-Sep24, 17.89, 0.46% Long, HKD, 3968, Jun27-Sep24, -9.16%, -0.07% Long, HKD, 688, Jun27-Sep24, -13.32%, -0.24% Long, USD, EBR, Jun27-Sep24, 11.21%, 0.09% Long, USD, LKOD, Mar22-Sep24, -6.32%, -0.04% Gross Month Realised Return: 0.41% Net cumulative return 36% (Jan17-Sep19) and Sharp Ratio […]
Between Wednesday 28th August and Wednesday 11th September (the last 10 bars in the charts below) the S&P 500 Index had a mild recovery to near record highs on light volume. However over the same period the DJ US Thematic Market Neutral Momentum index fell steeply, in it’s most violent move ever. Whilst the DJ […]
The A.I. assesses Econometric, Fundamental, Qualitative, Quantitative, Technical and Traditional data and, sentiment from documentation and news flow. Trade, FX, Ticker, Dates, P&L, Contribution Long, USD, AMZN, May28-Aug9, -1.18%, -0.03% Long, USD, ESNT, May28-Aug9, -2.1%, -0.02% Long, USD, LRCX, May28-Aug9, 8.73%, 0.09% Short, USD, MAC, May28-Aug9, 23.57% 0.69% Total Month Realised Return: 0.73% Net cumulative […]
Bitcoin has a market capitalisation of approximately US $200bn with 24 hour trading 7 days a week, making it the perfect TRADING instrument. At present the value of mining a bitcoin, is sustained by the price of bitcoin, which is sustained by net new money into the market, which is sustained by……(insert your own ideas). […]