Kings Portfolio Newsletter Q3 2020 – No room for pessimists

Economy & Capital Markets US equity markets moved to new all-time highs and the fastest ever recovery from a bear market as, Central Bank liquidity moved to assets whilst avoiding the huge economic capacity. In a well flagged move the US Federal Reserve Bank now target (excess) average inflation as a policy goal, that had […]

Kings Portfolio Newsletter Q2 2020 – “A game of inches”

Economy & Capital Markets The US Federal Reserve expects to hold short term interest rates at 0.1% for the next three years. At present the ECB’s short term rate is 0%, the BoJ’s -0.1%, the SNB’s -0.75% and PBC’s 3.85%; punishing cautious savers, pensions and those who should not undertake risk, to benefit limited liability […]

Family Office Bulletin – Investing – Earnings Estimates, COVID-19 & V-Shaped Recovery

12 minute introduction to understanding consensus earnings estimates. Their use in valuation models. How they represent a generalisation of the underlying economy. Why the stockmarket may not represent the consensus earnings view. Effect of COVID-19 (coronavirus) on earnings expectations. How they can provide a guide for managing operating business’.

Year 2019 in review

• Successes. – Developed and implemented first deep-learning applications providing a massive improvement in analytical power by leveraging previous years hardware purchases – Acceleration in pipeline of third party cutting edge quantitative research to implement – Impressive performance from improved security selection criteria – Further improved the fundamental and technical criteria for security selection – […]

A.I. Stock-Picking October Gross Realised Results: 0.83%

Jan17- Oct19 net cumulative return 39% & sharp ratio 1.03 against it’s ACWI universe 35% & 0.81. Trade, FX, Ticker, Holding Period, Position Return, Portfolio Contribution Short, CAD, CPG, 16Jul-10Oct, -18.20%, -0.20% Short, GBP, DRX, 16Jul-10Oct, 4.40%, 0.04% Short, GBP, INTU, 16Jul-10Oct, 52.40%, 0.53% Short, GBP, TED, 16Jul-10Oct, 41.75%, 0.46% Immediate transparency, 3 day full […]

Our A.I.’s Stock-Picking September Realised Results

Trade, FX, Ticker, Dates, P&L, Contribution Short, EUR, APAM, Jun27-Sep24, 6.29%, 0.21% Short, EUR, VAS, Jun27-Sep24, 17.89, 0.46% Long, HKD, 3968, Jun27-Sep24, -9.16%, -0.07% Long, HKD, 688, Jun27-Sep24, -13.32%, -0.24% Long, USD, EBR, Jun27-Sep24, 11.21%, 0.09% Long, USD, LKOD, Mar22-Sep24, -6.32%, -0.04% Gross Month Realised Return: 0.41% Net cumulative return 36% (Jan17-Sep19) and Sharp Ratio […]

STOCK MARKET THEMATIC ROTATION AND OVERCOMING BAD LUCK.

Between Wednesday 28th August and Wednesday 11th September (the last 10 bars in the charts below) the S&P 500 Index had a mild recovery to near record highs on light volume. However over the same period the DJ US Thematic Market Neutral Momentum index fell steeply, in it’s most violent move ever. Whilst the DJ […]