Kings Portfolio Newsletter Q2 2020 – “A game of inches”

Economy & Capital Markets The US Federal Reserve expects to hold short term interest rates at 0.1% for the next three years. At present the ECB’s short term rate is 0%, the BoJ’s -0.1%, the SNB’s -0.75% and PBC’s 3.85%; punishing cautious savers, pensions and those who should not undertake risk, to benefit limited liability […]

Family Office Bulletin – Investing – Earnings Estimates, COVID-19 & V-Shaped Recovery

12 minute introduction to understanding consensus earnings estimates. Their use in valuation models. How they represent a generalisation of the underlying economy. Why the stockmarket may not represent the consensus earnings view. Effect of COVID-19 (coronavirus) on earnings expectations. How they can provide a guide for managing operating business’.

Kings Portfolio Newsletter Q1 2020 – Now That’s What I Call A Quarter

Economy & Capital MarketsThe S&P500 fell 35% and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank cut effected funds rate from 1.59% to 0.25% in 24 trading days. This followed a reversal of Western Governments response to airborne COVID-19 (first globally reported on new years eve), initially failing to impose “cheap” measures pre-boarder, then enforcing delayed internal draconian […]

Year 2019 in review

• Successes. – Developed and implemented first deep-learning applications providing a massive improvement in analytical power by leveraging previous years hardware purchases – Acceleration in pipeline of third party cutting edge quantitative research to implement – Impressive performance from improved security selection criteria – Further improved the fundamental and technical criteria for security selection – […]

WHY I CAN’T INVEST CLIENT MONEY IN BITCOIN

Bitcoin has a market capitalisation of approximately US $200bn with 24 hour trading 7 days a week, making it the perfect TRADING instrument. At present the value of mining a bitcoin, is sustained by the price of bitcoin, which is sustained by net new money into the market, which is sustained by……(insert your own ideas). […]

How AI will help you live forever then eat your lunch.

First Published In FOTT Family Office Magazine Beijing – June 2019 The Turing machine that broke the enigma code during WWII was the birth of Artificial Intelligence (AI). However since then, the adoption of AI has mainly been confined to the manufacturing, transportation and distribution sectors; with the rise of robots that build Japanese cars […]

Magna Carta, English Civil War, Y2K…….Brexit.

Originally Published Jun. 27, 2016 “We finally really did it…You Maniacs! You blew it up! Ah, damn You! God damn you all to hell!” Cry the Bremain supporters, EU politicians and FX and equity capital markets. The departing and presumptive British PMs suggests a period of calm negotiations before any change occurs. EU politicians and […]

What’s going on – Are we heading for another Great Recession?

Originally Published Jun. 13, 2016 Eight years on from the Great Recession US unemployment rate is reaching pre recession levels But Fed rate hikes could lead to another stock market crash We are now eight years on from the global catastrophe of the “Great Recession”, but with the US stock market (SPY, DIA, QQQ) banging […]