What the f**k is ChatGPT?

As a caveat I’m not an expert on Generative AI and have never used ChatGPT. However I do know more than 99.99% of the population and 100% than anyone in the media on this matter, as a self taught A.I. coder of 7 years.

The most important part of the name is the “G” == Generative, this means it creates something as opposed identifying a result, giving a prediction or ultimately making a decision.

Your probably very familiar with CGI Computer-Generated Imagery, that creates the backgrounds or realistic visuals in movies or games. It is very cost effected, by not requiring humans to undertake intensive stop go animation and, allows visuals that would be near impossible to create eg a tiger talking.

Below is a composite of what venture capital is funding in the space including: visuals, interfaces, text, speech, audio and even coding.

It claimed that Generative AI can create 50% of code for new projects, providing massive amounts of productivity. However as someone without any formal training my personal experience is, the first 80% of coding only takes a few hours but its the last 20% that takes the weeks. Perhaps the most scary part of this is, Generative AI coding ultimately birthing its own offspring.

Today the biggest problem the industry is facing is copyright infringement. The internet permits instant access to content that could be utilised by the Generative AI e.g. a Picasso painting, an article by a leading lawyer, an engineering paper by a student. This content could be appropriated for use against the wishes of the originator.

However with proliferation of information on the internet for me the biggest problem is to avoid, in your area of concern, the equivalent of what someone had for lunch or their miming and dancing in a TikTok video, which appears the majority of new human content. In-fact I personal check a sample of most input data that I use.

My second area of concern is that the AI needs classification or labelling of initial training data to give it a reward mechanism for its actions on subsequent data.

Most people are aware that Silicon Valley is where the largest proliferation of new technology industry is based. You may also be aware that Silicon Valley is in California, which is famous for its “progressive” views. It could be a lazy assumption that, the labellers of the training data could have a high propensity to this political bias, including using a rare event as the representation result.

If you have no knowledge of a subject using ChatGPT is probably an easy way to give you content. If you are a successful specialist you are probably better labelling your own data. If you have no coding skills its probably better to engage your own boutique to assist you in this labelling. Or, you could go to one of the specialist companies below, to give you the accuracy, speed, productivity and access to legal specialist information already available from your industry.

Source: Sequoia Capital

Steven J Cohen CFA Newsletter Q4 2022

Economy & Capital Markets:

The US Federal Reserve Bank identifies 0.5% as the long run REAL interest rate. This implies that production (or tax revenue) expansion needed to payback a loan and interest is also expected to be 0.5%. Given the exponential technological advances and still positive demographic growth, there must be many areas where productivity is being crushed.

This 0.5% real interest rate has to be supported by money supply expansion far in excess of that necessary and so gets parked in many unproductive assets (how much does someone’s productivity increase by having one more house), leading to huge inequality of wealth for those who cannot or should not risk investment in these assets. Eventually the money supply leaks into consumer prices which just so happens to negatively effect the wealthy and so elicits a political response.

Through being the best to adapt, humans evolved. This is what has led to the our greatest advancements, the wheel, the plough, the steam engine, nuclear power, the cpu, the discovery of gravity, electricity and penicillin etc. Plato even suggested “adversity is the mother of invention”. However monetary authorities change monetary stance with the insight and frequency of circuit race driver’s gear change, in an attempt to prevent adversity. Instead of, being a truck driver moving to a lower gear when going uphill before sticking it back in cruise for the rest of the journey, allowing the economy to adapt.

With the US Fed trying to forecast too many variables and ignoring adaptability, it now realises it has no insight and has to rely on current data to enable its policies. Ignoring for 15 years the 1955’s Fed Chairman’s message “take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going”, that implies a lag in effect of monetary policy.

Ignoring adaptability is perhaps just a reflection of those in political positions own shortcomings by, relying on group or media think and, being unable to comprehend the advantages of a digital economy’s ability to target the (helpless) individual. Instead of setting a healthy environment where adaptability thrives, they seek to impose macro policies that crush productivity. Further the conflict of interest in extending their power base results in gratuitously spending future taxpayers income and erroneous immigration, further crowding out productive investment.

For 2023 the Fed now expects: 0.5% GDP growth, 4.6% unemployment, 3.1% inflation and 5.1% funds rate.

On 24th February, Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine which now appears to be faltering but the endgame remains uncertain. Crude oil prices have fallen 1/3rd from the initial spike.

In China on December 5th the required reserve ratio for financial institutions was reduced to a 7.8% weighted average. November 24th established financial principals to maintain a healthy housing market. 18th November established principals for overseas investment in the domestic bond market.

On December 21st the ECB raised its interest rates to 2.00% for deposits, 2.50% for refinancing and 2.75% for margin lending. From March 2023 the asset purchase programme portfolio will be reduced by EUR 15bn per month. For 2023 the ECB expects 0.5% GDP growth, 6.9% unemployment rate, 6.3% inflation, 90.6% government debt to GDP and 2.9% 3m EURIBOR.

Kings’ Portfolio (Global Mega Cap Long/Short Equity Investing):

In an incredible last quarter of 2022, the portfolio returned 24%. With only 6% attributable to the legacy cash sterling’s recovery against the dollar measured benchmark. We have now activated a currency overlay in the style of the portfolio. Other large contributors to performance were 3.57% from Myovant Sciences (US healthcare), 2.54% from Vivint Smart Home (US technology), 2.15% from Harmony Biosciences (US healthcare) and 1.67% from Scorpio Tankers (US energy). Since inception: the portfolio only trails the S&P 500 by 2% cumulative performance but, with a 0.07 improved Sharp Ratio, other incredible features were that shorts and longs have contributed equally to performance, only 3 out of 15 sectors have performed negatively the worst being -2%, out of six years performance only one has been (a single digit) negative. A position in Everaz & its spin off Raspadskaya (Russian steel & coal) is suspended in London, although most of the value has already be depreciated.

Belsize Strategy (Macro & Global Futures Trading):

In May 2021, with the advancement of the firms AI abilities, this long-standing strategy that provided excellent returns during the 2007/8 financial crisis restarted. For the year 2022 performance was -2.5%.

Private Equity Strategy (Illiquid Investments):

In 2021 Q2 the firm added five position (including reservations) to its first venture capital investment in 2019. Sector breakdown now stands at: 29% media & entertainment, 22% communications, 18% real estate, 18% finance and, 8% food and beverage. The technology breakdown in the portfolio consists of 60% apps, 20% hardware, 10% sharing economy and 10% e-commerce. The firm makes no positive discrimination except for the combination of good ideas and teams, however the initial investment was to a female managed business and, we have further invested in one black and two Latin managed businesses. The female managed business was found to be providing false sales reports and, was acquired for stock in a company with a larger consumer base at an unknown valuation.

Crypto Currency Strategy (Inter-day Trading):

Due to the rapid development of the firm’s proprietary AI, in June 2021 a crypto trading strategy was initiated, across 11 currencies each with a market capitalisation over $1Bn. For the year 2022 the trading performance was negative 10% although positive since inception. Unfortunately the portfolio was transferred to FTX from Binance in June due its improved facilities and tools. Whilst we await the final distribution from bankruptcy proceedings that may take several years we will maintain the investment at book value. The firm is now committed to a full decentralised financial system and will repeat our initial investment to a decentralised exchange with preferred trading in proof of stake instruments.

Artificial Intelligence & Technology Development:

The firm continues refinement of existing techniques and adoption of best practice. Human language analysis to identify non quantifiable impacts on capital markets, is in further development. The firm is developing consultancy and possibly software offerings to non-financial firms. Internally we will also apply artificial intelligence to venture capital and private equity investment opportunities.

Firm Operational Update:

Since 2015 the firm has been maintained as a Californian Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) within FINRA and SEC USA government oversight. The firm will seek to establish a US firm to provide a regulatory umbrella for existing clients. Until that time client assets will be managed on a non-professional basis, with reduced contractual liability.

FTX

We have been a customer of FTX since june 2022, we chose FTX because it had the greatest liquidity in FUTURES crypto currency. We transferred from Binance due to increased UK regulatory burden on customers to trade crypto derivatives. Although it was still possible to trade on margin on the Binance exchange the increased workflow to: organise the borrowing and repayment of currencies for shorts, the calculations to ensure to be within non-liquidation of account holdings and the processing of stop loss and profit taking made it nearly impossible even for a seasoned professional to trade. Whilst trading futures only requires the calculation of stop loss and profit taking, additionally the one click from calculation to trade on the FTX made it far superior than the previous Binance futures trading platform.

We were horrified to hear that Binance was even considering purchasing the FTX platform due to the negative effect on the competition of the industry. We consider one of the existing commodity/currency/stock/money market derivative exchanges to be the preferred purchaser, obviously they have to calculate if the purchase price would be lower than the revenue stream from their ability to develop a crypto futures exchange and on-board the clients independently.

In the meantime we continue to happy trade futures on the FTX platform as we are on a hiding to nothing. Further our total exposure to the FTX platform is less than loss on many individual stocks we invest in.

Steven J Cohen CFA Newsletter Q3 2022

Economy & Capital Markets:

The US Federal Reserve Bank identifies 0.5% as the long run REAL interest rate. This implies that production (or tax revenue) expansion needed to payback a loan and interest is also expected to be 0.5%. Given the exponential technological advances and still positive demographic growth, there must be many areas where productivity is being crushed.

This 0.5% real interest rate has to be supported by money supply expansion far in excess of that necessary and so gets parked in many unproductive assets (how much does someone’s productivity increase by having one more house), leading to huge inequality of wealth for those who cannot or should not risk investment in these assets. Eventually the money supply leaks into consumer prices which just so happens to negatively effect the wealthy and so elicits a political response.

Through being the best to adapt, humans evolved. This is what has led to the our greatest advancements, the wheel, the plough, the steam engine, nuclear power, the cpu, the discovery of gravity, electricity or penicillin etc. Plato even suggested “adversity is the mother of invention”. However monetary authorities change monetary stance with the insight and frequency of circuit race driver’s gear change, in an attempt to prevent adversity. Instead of, being a truck driver moving to a lower gear when going uphill before sticking it back in cruise for the rest of the journey, allowing the economy to adapt.

With the US Fed trying to forecast too many variables and ignoring adaptability, it now realises it has no insight and has to rely on current data to enable its policies. Ignoring for 15 years the 1955’s Fed Chairman’s message “take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going”, that implies a lag in effect of monetary policy.

Ignoring adaptability is perhaps just a reflection of those in political positions own shortcomings by, relying on group or media think and, being unable to comprehend the advantages of a digital economy’s ability to target the (helpless) individual. Instead of setting a healthy environment where adaptability thrives, they seek to impose macro policies that crush productivity. Further the conflict of interest in extending their power base results in gratuitously spending future taxpayers income and erroneous immigration, further crowding out productive investment.

Expectations of Republican gains in the November 8th mid-term congressional elections, remain.

On 24th February, Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine which now appears to be faltering but the endgame remains uncertain. Crude oil prices have fallen 1/3rd from the initial spike.

In China from 1st October personal housing loans for first time buyers are lowed to 2.6% for loans less than 5 years and to 3.1% for over 5 years. Previously approved was a RMB200bn. lending facility to financial institutions granting loans at less than 3.2% to small business for equipment upgrade. The foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward sales was rased to 20% and for foreign currency deposits lowered to 6% in September.

On September 8th the ECB raised its interest rates to 0.75% for deposits, 1.25% for refinancing and 1.5% for margin lending, with expectations of further increases. The asset purchase program will only invest maturing principal payments.

Kings’ Portfolio (Global Mega Cap Long/Short Equity Investing):

Year to date, the strategy has fallen 18%, outperforming US & Global equity market indices in both absolute and risk adjusted returns. In the last three quarter long (71% of the portfolio) pound sterling contributed a 11.8% a loss, long Lasertec (Japan – technology) 2.42%, long LPP (Poland – apparel) 1.97%, long Great Wall Motors (China) 1.61% and long Mercari (Japan – C2C platforms) 1.47%. A residue short position in Brilliant Motors (China automotives), that is held is at profit, was removed from exchanges in the USA and awaits the lifting of suspension in Hong Kong to liquidate. A position in Everaz & its spin off Raspadskaya (Russian steel & coal) is suspended in London, although most of the value has already be depreciated.

Belsize Strategy (Macro & Global Futures Trading):

In May 2021, with the advancement of the firms AI abilities, this long-standing strategy that provided excellent returns during the 2007/8 financial crisis restarted. Year to date the strategy is down 5%.

Private Equity Strategy (Illiquid Investments):

In 2021 Q2 the firm added five position (including reservations) to its first venture capital investment in 2019. Sector breakdown now stands at: 29% media & entertainment, 22% communications, 18% real estate, 18% finance and, 8% food and beverage. The technology breakdown in the portfolio consists of 60% apps, 20% hardware, 10% sharing economy and 10% e-commerce. The firm makes no positive discrimination except for the combination of good ideas and teams, however the initial investment was to a female managed business and, we have further invested in one black and two Latin managed businesses. The female managed business was found to be providing false sales reports and, was acquired for stock in a company with a larger consumer base at an unknown valuation.

Crypto Currency Strategy (Inter-day Trading):

Due to the rapid development of the firm’s proprietary AI, in June 2021 a crypto trading strategy was initiated, across 11 currencies each with a market capitalisation over $1Bn. Year to date the strategy is down 23%, most of which happened in the second month of the year, before the last refinement. Exchange service was changed in July

Artificial Intelligence & Technology Development:

The firm continues refinement of existing techniques and adoption of best practice. Human language analysis to identify non quantifiable impacts on capital markets, is in further development. The firm also looks to develop consultancy and possibly software offerings to non-financial firms. A huge database to assist with venture capital and private equity investment opportunities is being processed.

Firm Operational Update:

Since 2015 the firm has been maintained as a Californian Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) within FINRA and SEC USA government oversight. The firm will seek to establish a US firm to provide a regulatory umbrella for existing clients. Until that time client assets will be managed on a non-professional basis, with reduced contractual liability.

Steven J Cohen CFA Newsletter Q2 2022

Economy & Capital Markets:

On June 15h the effect Federal Funds Rate was raised to an average of 1 5/8ths %, with its projection for the year-end raised to 3.4%. US 10 year bond yields are now hovering around 3% after the bond price had fallen 17% from its highs, whilst the S&P 500 has fallen 25%. Belated quantitative tightening of $95bn per month will only make a small dent in the over ample money supply that would allow growth and employment to be maintained. If the Federal Reserve Bank were to increase further projections it would reflect badly on stock-markets.

Irrespective of inflation expectations, global governments’ social program, to removed self-reliance by, encouraging the labour force to abstain whilst borrowing from their children, have made a serious dent in productivity that make recession probable.

Expectations of Republican gains in the November 8th mid-term congressional elections, remain.

On 24th February, Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, several significant trading partners imposed varying financial restrictions on Russia. Crude oil prices remains elevated but are still half of 2008 highs.

In April, the Peoples Bank of China reduced the reserve ratio for financial institutions by 0.25% leaving it at a weighted 8.1%. In May, the reserve requirement ratio for foreign currency deposits was reduced by 1% leaving it at 8%. A RMB200 bn facility at 1.75% to finance 60% of loans by banks for sci-tech innovation was launched. A RMB 40bn facility at 1.75% was launched for financing the loans to elderly care institutions. A further RMB100 bn was released making a total RMB300m facility, to finance clean and efficient coal for electricity.

The ECB intends to raise interest rates by 0.25% in July and again in September. The asset purchase program will only invest maturing principal payments. 3mth EIBOR is expected to rise to 1.6% by 2024, and EU10 year bond yields to 2.1%. Real GDP growth is expected above 2% though to 2024, with unemployment above 6%.

Kings’ Portfolio (Global Mega Cap Long/Short Equity Investing):

Following a disastrous first quarter, the strategy has now outperformed US & Global equity market indices in both absolute and risk adjusted returns for the year. Year to date, the strategy has fallen 16%, with unfortunately 10% occurring in the last 10 trading days of the quarter. In the last quarter long pound sterling contributed a 4.95% a loss to the portfolio, long Valaris (offshore – energy) 1%, long RPC (USA – energy) 0.89%, long Paladin Energy (Australia) 0.85% and long CNX Resources (USA – energy) 0.64%. A residue short position in Brilliant Motors (China automotives), that is held is at profit, was removed from exchanges in the USA and awaits the lifting of suspension in Hong Kong to liquidate. A position in Everaz & its spin off Raspadskaya (Russian steel & coal) is suspended in London, although most of the value has already be depreciated.

Belsize Strategy (Macro & Global Futures Trading):

In May 2021, with the advancement of the firms AI abilities, this long-standing strategy that provided excellent returns during the 2007/8 financial crisis restarted. Following calibration of the artificial intelligence, in the final third of 2021 the strategy eked out a profit but, Q1 2022 had a small loss. Further refinement have led to sustained profit generation in Q2 2022.

Private Equity Strategy (Illiquid Investments):

In 2021 Q2 the firm added five position (including reservations) to its first venture capital investment in 2019. Sector breakdown now stands at: 29% media & entertainment, 22% communications, 18% real estate, 18% finance and, 8% food and beverage. The technology breakdown in the portfolio consists of 60% apps, 20% hardware, 10% sharing economy and 10% e-commerce. The firm makes no positive discrimination except for the combination of good ideas and teams, however the initial investment was to a female managed business and, we have further invested in one black and two Latin managed businesses. The female managed business was found to be providing false sales reports and, was acquired for stock in a company with a larger consumer base at an unknown valuation.

Crypto Currency Strategy (Inter-day Trading):

Due to the rapid development of the firm’s proprietary AI, in June 2021 a crypto trading strategy was initiated, across 11 currencies each with a market capitalisation over $1Bn. In the second month of 2022 a loss was recorded that erased the profits from the previous 10 months. The strategy has been trading flat since then.

Artificial Intelligence & Technology Development:

The firm continues refinement of existing techniques and adoption of best practice. Human language analysis to identify non quantifiable impacts on capital markets, is in further development. The firm also looks to develop consultancy and possibly software offerings to non-financial firms. A huge database to assist with venture capital and private equity investment opportunities is being processed.

Firm Operational Update:

Since 2015 the firm has been maintained as a Californian Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) within FINRA and SEC USA government oversight. The firm will seek to establish a US firm to provide a regulatory umbrella for existing clients. Until that time client assets will be managed on a casual non-professional basis, with reduced contractual liability.

Steven J Cohen CFA Newsletter Q1 2022

Economy & Capital Markets:

On March 16th the Fed raised: the effect Federal Funds Rate to an average of 3/8th %, with a projection for the year-end of 1.9% and, 2.8% by end 2023. The long end of the bond market sold off in response.

On 24th February, Russia launched an large-scale invasion of Ukraine, several significant trading partners imposed varying financial restrictions on Russia. Since the middle of the March, it appeared that Russia’s initial military expectation would not be met and that it would seek to reduce its incursion, stock markets recovered.

Following no major policy win the Democrats are introducing a new Legalisation of Cannabis bill that would increase tax revenue although, it may not clear the Senate. The capabilities of the US President is questioned even in supporting media-platforms therefore, the Vice-President could be promoted. There are expectations of Republican gains in mid-term congressional elections.

The PB of China sees domestic: shrinking demand, supply shocks and waning expectations. M2 is expected to growth at the pace of GDP with, corporate loan rates falling. There will be more support for smaller businesses, sci-tech and greener industry. Whilst the country maintains a zero Covid approach lockdowns will continue.

For 2022 the ECB signals: 3.7% GDP growth, 7.3% unemployment rate and 5.1% inflation rate. 3mth EIBOR in not expected to rise to 0.3% until 2023. Pandemic net asset purchases are indicated to continue through 2024. Non-pandemic net asset purchases are indicated to continue at EUR 20 bn per month. The 3rd target longer-term refinancing operations are signalled to end in June 2022. Key interest rates will be maintained until consistently expected 2% underlying inflation rates.

Kings’ Portfolio (Global Mega Cap Long/Short Equity Investing):

In a career threatening quarter the portfolio lost 14.3%, as it’s risk adjusted return (Sharp Ratio) since inception crashed below that of both the US and World Equity Indices. Long positions: Lasertec (Japan semi-conductors) contributed 2.42% to the portfolio loss in the quarter, LPP (Polish clothing)1.97%, Great Wall Motor (China automotives) 1.61% and, Mercari (Japan media-platforms) 1.47%. In addition, a residue short position in Brilliant Motors (China automotives), that is held is at profit, was removed from exchanges in the USA and awaits the lifting of suspension in Hong Kong to liquidate. Further, as well as several closed long losing positions in Polish stocks, a position in Everaz & its spin off Raspadskaya (Russian steel & coal) is suspended in London.

Losses were influenced by a coincidence of pivotal moments including: (reversal of) monetary policy that has been unnecessary for 10 years, (reversal of) martial law due from unwillingness to quarantine an insignificant but vulnerable part of the population, fiscal expansion at a time of full employment, humiliating EU & US foreign policies encouraging war in Europe. Whilst the strategy had performed at an excellent risk reward level since the end of the Great Recession (2009), absolute performance was impacted by political unwillingness to allow poorly allocated assets to be redeployed. As the artificial intelligence employed in this strategy seeks to allocated under rational (non-political) criteria, it has therefore suffered.

The does strategy continually looks to improve the economic fundamental techniques employed and, learns from its own historic mistakes. If responsible politics return the portfolio can provide outsized absolute returns, if they do not, only adequate risk adjusted returns can be expected. However, artificial intelligence looking for shorter term indicators based on capital market information, are now in development to enhance returns.

Belsize Strategy (Macro & Global Futures Trading):

In May 2021, with the advancement of the firms AI abilities, this long-standing strategy that provided excellent returns during the 2007/8 financial crisis restarted. Following calibration of the artificial intelligence, in the final third of 2021 the strategy eked out a profit but, in the last quarter had a small loss due to the coincidence of pivotal moments (above).

Private Equity Strategy (Illiquid Investments):

In 2021 Q2 the firm added five position (including reservations) to its first venture capital investment in 2019. Sector breakdown now stands at: 29% media & entertainment, 22% communications, 18% real estate, 18% finance and, 8% food and beverage. The technology breakdown in the portfolio consists of 60% apps, 20% hardware, 10% sharing economy and 10% e-commerce. The firm makes no positive discrimination except for the combination of good ideas and teams, however the initial investment was to a female managed business and, we have further invested in one black and two Latin managed businesses. The female managed business was found to be providing false sales reports and, was acquired for stock in a company with a larger consumer base.

Crypto Currency Strategy (Inter-day Trading):

Due to the rapid development of the firm’s proprietary AI, in June 2021 a crypto trading strategy was initiated, across 11 currencies each with a market capitalisation over $1Bn. In the second month of 2022 a loss was recorded that erased the profits from the previous 10 months. The strategy has been trading flat since then.

Artificial Intelligence & Technology Development:

The firm continues refinement of existing techniques (above) and adoption of best practice. Human language analysis to identify political impacts on capital markets, is in further development. The firm also looks to develop consultancy and possibly software offerings.

Firm Operational Update:

Since 2015 the firm has been maintained as a Californian Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) within FINRA and SEC USA government oversight. At present the firm’s administrative headquarters are in London, UK; if global travel restrictions return to pre-Covid levels we expect this to be more fluid.

Impact Investing:

The firm looks to develop infrastructure for the deployment of capital in impact investing over the next five years.