Economy & Capital Markets:

The Federal Reserve June 14th projections show improved GDP (higher), unemployment (lower) and inflation (lower) expectations, as well as; “higher for longer” Funds Rate of 5.6% (2023), 4.6% (2024) and 3.4% (2025). Whilst the longer run Funds Rate is maintained at 2.5%

On 24th February 2022, Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine which now appears to be faltering but the endgame remains uncertain.

On June 13th the Peoples Bank of China conducted reverse repo operations at a lower bidding rate of 1.9%.

On June 21st the ECB raised its interest rates to 3.50% for deposits, 4.00% for refinancing and 4.25% for margin lending. From July 2023 there will be no reinvestments under the Asset Purchase Program. Reinvestment of principal for the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme will continue till the end of 2024. For 2023 the ECB expects 0.9% real GDP growth, 6.5% unemployment rate, 5.4% inflation, 89.1% government debt to GDP and 3.4% 3m EURIBOR.

Kings’ Portfolio (Global Mega Cap Long/Short Equity Investing):

In the second quarter of 2023, the portfolio returned 1.89%. Largest contribution to performance were from a long positions GBP (1.68%) Axsome Therapeutics (US Biopharmaceutical 1.37%) , Unicredit (Italian Financial 1.10%) and Skywest (US Airlines1.07)% and detractors were Siemens Energy (German Energy -2.81%). Since inception: the portfolio trails the ACWI by 4% cumulative performance but, with far less volatility. A position in Everaz & its spin off Raspadskaya (Russian steel & coal) is suspended in London, although most of the value has already be depreciated.

Belsize Strategy (Macro & Global Futures Trading):

In May 2021, with the advancement of the firms AI abilities, this long-standing strategy that provided excellent returns during the 2007/8 financial crisis restarted. For the year 2022 performance was -2.5%. In the first half 2023 the portfolio returned -4.5%, most of which occurred in the last two weeks (around the ECB Forum on Central Banking) and is expected to reverse.

Private Equity Strategy (Illiquid Investments):

In 2021 Q2 the firm added five position (including reservations) to its first venture capital investment in 2019. Sector breakdown now stands at: 29% media & entertainment, 22% communications, 18% real estate, 18% finance and, 8% food and beverage. The technology breakdown in the portfolio consists of 60% apps, 20% hardware, 10% sharing economy and 10% e-commerce. The firm makes no positive discrimination except for the combination of good ideas and teams, however the initial investment was to a female managed business and, we have further invested in one black and two Latin managed businesses. The female managed business was found to be providing false sales reports and, was acquired for stock in a company with a larger consumer base at an unknown valuation.

Crypto Currency Strategy (Inter-day Trading):

Due to the rapid development of the firm’s proprietary AI, in June 2021 a crypto trading strategy was initiated, across 11 currencies each with a market capitalisation over $1Bn. For the year 2022 the trading performance was negative 10% although positive since inception. Unfortunately the portfolio was transferred to FTX from Binance in June due its improved facilities and tools. Whilst we await the final distribution from bankruptcy proceedings that may take several years we will maintain the investment at book value. The firm is now committed to a full decentralised financial system and will repeat our initial investment to a decentralised exchange with preferred trading in proof of stake instruments.

Artificial Intelligence & Technology Development:

The firm has nearly completed the development of ADDITIONAL AI that underpins Chat GPT4 but using our in-house databases and labelling. Human language analysis to identify non quantifiable impacts on capital markets, is in further development. The firm is developing consultancy and possibly software offerings to non-financial firms. Internally we will also apply artificial intelligence to venture capital and private equity investment opportunities.

Firm Operational Update:

The firm successfully relocated to St. Petersburg in Florida under its Californian Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) within FINRA and SEC USA government oversight. Transfer of client assets from our previous UK entity and its closure is expected in the near future.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

The reCAPTCHA verification period has expired. Please reload the page.