Newsletter Q3 2021

Economy & Capital Markets: In September the US Fed, revised expectations of 2021 growth down to 5.9% and inflation up to 4.2% whilst, indicating the Federal Funds rate will rise to 0.3% in 2022 and then to 1% in 2023. The Peoples Bank of China views: contact-based consumption constrained, problems for small businesses and manufacturing …

Steven J Cohen CFA Newsletter Q2 2021

Economy & Capital Markets: In June the US Fed, improved expectations of 2021 growth to 7% and inflation to 3.4% and, indicated that they expect to increase interest rates to 0.6% in 2023, a long way off. The PB of China views: resident consumption constrained, problems for small businesses and fiscal imbalances for several regional …

Kings Portfolio Newsletter Q1 2021

Economy & Capital Markets: During the period yields on the 10 year US Treasury increased to 1.76% from 0.67% a year ago, but 1 year bill yields fell to 0.07% from 0.15%, whilst the US Federal Reserve projected inflation for 2021 of 2.4% falling back to 2% next year. With negative real yields across the …

Kings Portfolio Newsletter Q4 2020

Economy & Capital Markets: Uncertainties in 2020 (Brexit, Covid, US elections, elongation of the economic cycle) have now dissipated. Unemployment remains elevated and inflation absent, permitting central bankers to continue their folly of creating massive wealth inequality through near to zero interest rates, as apposed to increasing the volocity of money. Interestingly governments across the …

Kings Portfolio Newsletter Q3 2020 – No room for pessimists

Economy & Capital Markets US equity markets moved to new all-time highs and the fastest ever recovery from a bear market as, Central Bank liquidity moved to assets whilst avoiding the huge economic capacity. In a well flagged move the US Federal Reserve Bank now target (excess) average inflation as a policy goal, that had …

Monopoly Money

Companies in nascent industries under the guise of lowering cost to the consumer are being allowed insurmountable economies of scale, by buying out their vertical and horizontal competitors. In the end, only these monopoly company owners and employees benefit from industry profits. New competitors now cannot enter to share the industry wealth on a more …

Kings Portfolio Newsletter Q2 2020 – “A game of inches”

Economy & Capital Markets The US Federal Reserve expects to hold short term interest rates at 0.1% for the next three years. At present the ECB’s short term rate is 0%, the BoJ’s -0.1%, the SNB’s -0.75% and PBC’s 3.85%; punishing cautious savers, pensions and those who should not undertake risk, to benefit limited liability …

Family Office Bulletin – Investing – Earnings Estimates, COVID-19 & V-Shaped Recovery

12 minute introduction to understanding consensus earnings estimates. Their use in valuation models. How they represent a generalisation of the underlying economy. Why the stockmarket may not represent the consensus earnings view. Effect of COVID-19 (coronavirus) on earnings expectations. How they can provide a guide for managing operating business’.

Kings Portfolio Newsletter Q1 2020 – Now That’s What I Call A Quarter

Economy & Capital MarketsThe S&P500 fell 35% and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank cut effected funds rate from 1.59% to 0.25% in 24 trading days. This followed a reversal of Western Governments response to airborne COVID-19 (first globally reported on new years eve), initially failing to impose “cheap” measures pre-boarder, then enforcing delayed internal draconian …

Year 2019 in review

• Successes. – Developed and implemented first deep-learning applications providing a massive improvement in analytical power by leveraging previous years hardware purchases – Acceleration in pipeline of third party cutting edge quantitative research to implement – Impressive performance from improved security selection criteria – Further improved the fundamental and technical criteria for security selection – …