Category Archives: Private Equity

Steven J Cohen CFA Newsletter Q2 2023

Economy & Capital Markets: The Federal Reserve June 14th projections show improved GDP (higher), unemployment (lower) and inflation (lower) expectations, as well as; “higher for longer” Funds Rate of 5.6% (2023), 4.6% (2024) and 3.4% (2025). Whilst the longer run Funds Rate is maintained at 2.5% On 24th February 2022, Russia launched a large-scale invasion …

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Why the essential business cycle is driven by innovation, not speculation.

Innovation from a more efficient process or discovery of raw resource (material/people). Wealth sees that capex/training will increase to diminish short term profits so valuations decline. Producers see long term profits will rise so borrow (now relatively cheaper than equity) to fund capex. Interest rates rise. Consumers see better return on saving so divert from …

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Steven J Cohen CFA Newsletter Q1 2023

Economy & Capital Markets: The Fed’s March 22nd “dot-plot” is an amalgamation of selected Regional Reserve Presidents’ economic forecasts. There was a creep up in individual Presidents’ Longer-run projects of Federal funds rate at the higher limit. Whilst the median remains at 2.5%, with a Longer run inflation median projection of 2%, this still implies …

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Is it time for the Federal Reserve to get REAL

I don’t claim to be a genius an intellectual or know what’s better for anyone else. What I do know is that when I deposit my cash I demand the return to exceed inflation and cost of insurance for default (if I wish to purchase). As can be seen from the above chart since 2000, …

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