Steven J Cohen CFA Newsletter Q2 2023

Economy & Capital Markets: The Federal Reserve June 14th projections show improved GDP (higher), unemployment (lower) and inflation (lower) expectations, as well as; “higher for longer” Funds Rate of 5.6% (2023), 4.6% (2024) and 3.4% (2025). Whilst the longer run Funds Rate is maintained at 2.5% On 24th February 2022, Russia launched a large-scale invasion …

Steven J Cohen CFA Newsletter Q1 2023

Economy & Capital Markets: The Fed’s March 22nd “dot-plot” is an amalgamation of selected Regional Reserve Presidents’ economic forecasts. There was a creep up in individual Presidents’ Longer-run projects of Federal funds rate at the higher limit. Whilst the median remains at 2.5%, with a Longer run inflation median projection of 2%, this still implies …

Steven J Cohen CFA Newsletter Q4 2022

Economy & Capital Markets: The US Federal Reserve Bank identifies 0.5% as the long run REAL interest rate. This implies that production (or tax revenue) expansion needed to payback a loan and interest is also expected to be 0.5%. Given the exponential technological advances and still positive demographic growth, there must be many areas where …

Steven J Cohen CFA Newsletter Q3 2022

Economy & Capital Markets: The US Federal Reserve Bank identifies 0.5% as the long run REAL interest rate. This implies that production (or tax revenue) expansion needed to payback a loan and interest is also expected to be 0.5%. Given the exponential technological advances and still positive demographic growth, there must be many areas where …